2024 Electoral Survey Suggests a Close Race
9 Millones’ survey shows low levels of trust in the government and that corruption is the most common worry among Puerto Rican voters
Nota editorial: Esta nota se produjo gracias a una subvención del María Fund, en colaboración con Mentes Puertorriqueñas en Acción y La Escuela de Liderazgo. 9 Millones, junto a estas otras dos organizaciones, forma parte de la coalición #PrendeTuVoto.
From July to October 2024, 9 Millones conducted an electoral survey, which reveals a close race between Juan Dalmau Ramírez and Jennifer González Colón for Puerto Rico’s governorship.
The Puerto Rico Independence Party (PIP, in Spanish) candidate emerged as the winner for governor with 34.9% of the votes of respondents registered to vote, followed by the resident commissioner in Washington D.C. and president of the New Progressive Party (PNP,), with 33.2%. Behind them are Jesús Manuel Ortíz González, of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), with 23.7%, and Javier Jiménez Pérez, of Project Dignity (PD), with 3.6%.
However, 4% said they will vote for “another candidate”. The ballot only provides two other options: Javier Córdova Iturregui, the candidate nominated by the Citizen Victory Movement (MVC, in Spanish) to comply with the Electoral Code, but who did not campaign because the party endorsed Dalmau Ramírez; and the option to submit a write-in vote.
Among voters not affiliated with political parties, Dalmau Ramírez leads with 44% of support, followed by González Colón, with 19.8%, and the PPD candidate with 16.5%.
In addition, the former PIP senator has the support of a large portion (77.1%) of those surveyed between the ages of 18 and 44 who plan to vote. Of the people in this age range, 31.4% are not affiliated with any political party; 26.7% identify with the PIP; and 25.6% with the MVC. Only 6.9% identify with the PNP; 5.8% checked the “Other” option; 2.3% identified with the PPD; and 1.2% with the PD.
Sample demographics
The sample consisted of 500 people, all of them 18 years or older and residents of Puerto Rico. Those registered to vote totaled 476, or 95.2% of respondents. Women (63%), people between 50 and 79 years of age (75.8%) and people with a high school degree or higher (58.4%) are disproportionately represented in the sample.
It is worth noting that the majority of people surveyed identify themselves as Catholic (46.6%), while 22.6% practice a different Christian denomination. In addition, 19.2% said they are not religious, but believe in God or in another supreme being; 7.6% identified as atheists; and 4% marked that they follow another religion.
9 Millones used convenience sampling, which means that the survey does not attempt to obtain a representative sample of the population. This type of sampling allows the selection of participants based on their availability and proximity, which facilitates identifying trends quickly and affordably. This type of study accepts a higher level of bias due to the non-random selection process, and makes it difficult to calculate margins of error.
Citizen and voter participation
A large majority of respondents (81%) say they have “a lot” or “some” interest in politics. 83.8% said they voted in the 2020 elections. Among those who voted in 2020, 33.7% said they favored Governor Pedro Pierluisi; 27% favored Carlos Delgado Altieri, from the PPD; 18.9% favored Dalmau Ramírez; 14.1% favored Alexandra Lúgaro, from the MVC; 2.7% favored César Vázquez, from the PD; and 1% opted for the then independent candidate, Eliezer Molina.
Among all respondents, most (30.2%) identify with the PNP, followed by the PPD (20.8%). However, when the Alliance parties are combined, 23.4% of those surveyed identify with their movements—13% with the PIP and 10.4% with the MVC. Meanwhile, 3.4% of respondents identify with the PD. 19.8% do not identify with any political party.
Although they have a strong interest in politics and have been active electorally, less than half (45.4%) said that, in the last four years, they have participated in any protest, been active in any political organization or been part of any community group or association.
Puerto Rico’s biggest issues
We asked respondents to choose what they believe is the biggest problem Puerto Rico faces from a list of 25 issues. Government corruption and lack of transparency (29%), inefficient electric power service (13.6%), and Puerto Rico's colonialism or status (8.4%) were the top choices. These issues remained relatively unchanged compared to the results of the survey we conducted in 2020, with the exception of inefficient electric service, which was not even among the top three responses. At that time, the economy ranked second (9.8%).
The top three problems listed in 2024 are followed by lack of family values (7%) and violence and crime (6.4%).
Among respondents 44 years-old and under, there was less concern for the latter two issues—none selected lack of values, and only one person selected violence and crime. Instead, they showed greater concern for poor leadership (12.8%), poverty and homelessness (7%), and the deterioration of the education system (7%).
Public trust in government
Respondents' trust in municipal, state and federal governments is low. However, municipal governments enjoy the greatest trust—42.8% say they trust that their decisions are beneficial “always” or “most of the time.” They are followed by the federal government (39.8%), the governor (24.4%), and finally, the legislature (16.4%).
Methodology
The majority of the sample was obtained through advertisements on Meta (Facebook and Instagram) targeting Puerto Rico’s general population. The link to the survey was also shared at the “Jóvenes al futuro” concert, organized by the “Prende tu Voto” educational campaign, as well as with our social media audience and on the 9 Millones website.
This is the second election cycle in which 9 Millones conducts an electoral survey. The 2020 survey was developed with Professor Viviana Rivera Burgos, a professor of Political Science at Baruch College at the City University of New York, who specializes in U.S. public opinion and political behavior, particularly in the Latino and Puerto Rican communities. She is also a researcher at the Puerto Rican Public Opinion Lab, the first large-scale, representative survey of the Puerto Rican population in the archipelago. You can read the results of the 2020 survey here.
Get ready for the elections
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